What's your money personality?

By Milan Doshi

During my seminars and personal financial consultations, I have come across many people who have different attitudes towards money.

All of us have unique personalities - some characteristics are inborn and some are learnt along life's journey. Likewise, when it comes to money and real estate investments, we too possess various money personalities. They are:

1. Spenders / Shoppers

These personalities derive great emotional satisfaction from spending money. They need instant gratification and can't resist spending money. Spenders often shop to entertain themselves, even if the items they buy go unused. A sale is simply an excuse to spend money on the pretext of getting a good deal on things that they do not need at the moment.

A well-to-do good friend of mine was shocked to discover, during his house moving, that his wife owned more than 100 pairs of shoes and over 30 handbags! Like most guys, he couldn't see the need for his wife to own so many pairs of shoes and handbags. As money was not an issue, he didn't mind his wife buying more new shoes or handbags, provided that she gave her old ones away. He was concerned that his new house was quickly running out of closet space to store the things his wife bought.

Unfortunately, besides being a shopper, his wife was also a hoarder. She didn't have the heart to give away things that are still fairly new and seldom used. This led to frequent quarrels and my friend decided that the only way out was to build more closet space in his current house and to move to a bigger house a few years later to accommodate his wife's impulsive shopping habit. It was a small price that he could afford to pay to keep his wife happy.

Advice for Spenders/ Shoppers: Shop a lot less, save a lot more


If you love to spend, it's very likely that you are going to continue doing it. when shopping, try to seek long term value, not just short -term satisfaction.

Before purchasing, ask yourself how much that purchase is going to mean in a year. If the answer is "not much", then forgo the purchase.

This way, you can limit your spending to things that you'll actually use. If possible, set a monthly budget and stick to it. In case you over-spend in a month, make sure that you have the discipline to cut back the following month.

Another suggestion is to cut up any extra credit cards you may have and lower the credit limit on the ones you use regularly. Give standing instructions to auto-debit your bank account on the due date with the full amount for all your credit cards. This way you will not be tempted to overspend.

2. Debtors


Debtors are similar to Spenders/Shoppers.

The only difference is that they are spending money that they don't have and are living beyond their means. They are deeply in debt and often, are not in a position to do much investing.

Debtors will typically live rich but die poor!

A newly married young couple in their late twenties came to see me for a personal financial consultation. They were keen on investing in properties and stocks.

Their combined gross income was RM15,000 per month but their net worth was less than RM100,000! They had RM20,000 in credit card debts, less than RM5,000 in savings and they both drive brand new Japanese cars worth around RM70,000 each.

Their logic of purchasing new cars was that they didn't want any problems associated with buying cheaper second-hand cars.

In my opinion, both fell into the Debtor personality.

While they were earning well for their age bracket, they were mismanaging their money by accumulating credit card debts and over-spending.

Since both were desk-bound employees, there was no need for them to make a good impression by driving new cars. In fact, they could ill-afford to drive new cars at this stage of their lives, given their current financial situation.

In order to clear up the credit card debts and begin their investment journey, I strongly suggested that they sell off their two cars which were around a year old and downgrade to a three year old Proton or Perodua car which costs around RM35,000 each.

Straight away, they would be able to settle their credit cards debts and have sufficient start-up capital of around RM50,000 to begin investing.

Unfortunately, it was easier said than done.

Towards the end of our consultation, the husband blurted out that they had just placed a deposit for a new car for himself worth RM85,000 to lock-in the low interest rates.

Since both had the Debtor personality, I really had a tough time convincing them to change their spending habits. If one of them had a different money personality, perhaps I would have an easier time to get one spouse to convince and force the other to change his/her ways.

Finally, all I could do was wish them good luck. Personally, there is no way they will go far in life unless they make drastic changes to their behaviour

Advice for Debtors: Start saving, investing & don't spend money that you don't have!


If you are already in debt, you first need to get your debts sorted out before you can begin investing. If you are not able to do it alone, get some professional financial help like what the couple did when they saw me.

Also, analyse what caused you to get into trouble.

If it was easy access to credit cards, then the solution would be to cut up all "temptations" cards and sticks to debit cards. If spending was something that you used to compensate for other areas in your life that you feel were lacking, think about what these might be and work on changing them.

If your house and cars were purchased because of the need to look good, then you may even need to downgrade your lifestyles by moving to a smaller house, drive an older car, etc.

Next, focus your efforts on saving money diligently.

Pay yourself first by setting aside a certain portion of your take-home income that automatically goes into a special bank account that is used for investments. The money in this account can never be spend - it is your golden goose.

Later, when you retire, you can only spend the eggs that your golden goose laid i.e whatever interest, dividend or rental incomethat your investments generated.

3. Savers


Savers are the exact opposite of Spenders/Shoppers and Debtors.

They only shop when absolutely necessary and never accumulate credit cards debts. They generally have no debts and are often viewed as cheapskates.

Savers are not concerned about keeping up with the Joneses or following the latest trends. They are happy with their 20-year-old cars and derive great satisfaction from seeing the interest earned on their bank statements.

Due to their conservative nature, they don't take big risks with their investments. They prefer fixed deposits instead of other riskier investments where there is a possibility of a loss.

Extreme Savers unfortunately will live poor but die rich!

Most of our parents who had lived through the Second World War and experienced hard times, where they didn't have the luxury of three meals a day, will fall into this money personality type.

I met many people who live in old houses that were last renovated 20 years ago and drive well-maintained cars that are more than 15 years old. These people are the ones who have more than RM5 million in fixed deposits!

At the current fixed deposit rate of 2.5% p.a., their interest income alone is over RM10,000 per month which is more than sufficient to fund their no-frills lifestyle.

Advice for Savers: Practice moderation & take a little more investment risk

If you are a Saver, you should not let all the fun parts of life pass by just to save a few cents.

To achieve some sort of balance, it's advisable that you allocate a small sum of "Play Money" where you can nourish your inner child by living like a King/Queen for a few hours every month.

Spending a bit of money on having fun isn't going to make you bankrupt. Once you have tasted the good life, would you want more?

The answer is a definite 'Yes'. In fact, you would be motivated to challenge yourself to make more money so that you can have more of the good life.

Instead of taking little or no investment risk by leaving all your money in fixed deposits, you need to learn to take a little more risk by investing a portion of your capital into higher return investments such as REITs, properties, bond funds, etc.

After all, the key to investing success is to minimise risks while maximising returns. Avoiding investments risks completely will not get you far in the long run.

4. The Avoiders / Money Monks

These people are not comfortable with the subject of money due to their lack of interest or they feel that that are other more important issues.

Often, they will try their level best to avoid the subject completely. Money Monks are happy-go-lucky types who strongly belief that God will take care of them. At the extreme end, they may not even know whether they are rich or broke.

If you are married to an Avoider or a Money Monk, you will have to shoulder the responsibility of managing money and investing for your family. The big advantage is that you will have little or no arguments on any money matters with them.

Advice for Avoiders/Money Monks: Make sure that you do not marry your own kind. Alternatively, find a trusted professional financial planner.

It's a sad fact that people typically will not change even when they know they need to.

Hence, it is extremely tough to suggest to Avoiders and Money Monk that they should have an interest in knowing how money works.

If you are an Avoider or Money Monk, an easier alternative is to make sure you don't marry their own kinds or you should seek professional help when it comes to managing your money.

5. Investors


Investors are consciously aware of how money works.

They know where they are financially today and try to put as much of their money to work.

All investors tend to seek a day when their passive income from their investments will provide sufficient income to cover all their expenses.

Their actions are driven by careful decision making, and they are comfortable with the need to take a certain amount of risk in pursuit of their goals

Advice for Investors: Keep it up!

Congratulations! Financially speaking, you are on the right path and doing great! Keep doing what you are doing, and continue to educate yourself.

It's extremely important to know which money personality you fall into as each has its own strengths and weaknesses.

Understanding your unique money personality will help you shape your approach to spending, saving and investing.

If you are married, it will also help you understand your spouse better as most marriages get into trouble because of money issues.

Open up your mind

Recently, I have shared my plan of achieving financial freedom with some people around me. However most of them don't seem to be very interested. I believe that most of the people are "too educated". They can do certain task very well for other but are not willing to try out new things to improve their own financial status. Perhaps, this story will explain why many people are not able to achieve financial freedom.


Once upon a time, there was a wise Zen master. Many people would come and ask him for enlightenment in the ways of Zen. One day, a general came to visit this Zen master. He said arrogantly and proudly to the master, “After fighting so many battles successfully, I really tired of it. So how can you enlighten my mind?” He began to laugh loudly while waiting for the master to reply.

The master slowly raised the teapot and began pouring tea into a cup. It was slowly filled up and the tea started to overflow onto the table. The general stopped his laugher as the tea began to drip onto his clothing. The general shouted, “Stop that, can’t you see it is full?”

The master stopped the pouring and smiled at the general, “You are like this cup of tea. It is full and cannot be filled up anymore. Come back to me when it is empty.”

The morale of this story is one must clear his or her opinions before learning new thing.

For those who want to achieve financial freedom, please remember to keep your mind open for any opportunities. Search for opportunities rather than waiting for the opportunities to come to you. And one more thing, "Less educated" sometime can be a good thing too.

Jack and Jill

Just to share a financial story about Jack and Jill.


Jack and Jill were providing a service to their village by fetching pails of water from the hill to the villagers. They were paid based on each pail of water fetched to the villagers.

After fetching the water for 1 year, Jill thinks of a idea. The idea is to make a pipe from the hill to the village, so that they no longer had to go up and down the hill any more. After hearing Jill's idea, Jack shouted "What a stupid idea, how are you going to build a pipe from the hill to the village. Since you are so free, why not go and fetch a few more pails of water to earn more. Stop day dreaming and get back to work"

Jill ignored Jack comments and started to think of how to build the pipe. She spent one year to figure out on how to build a pipe from the hill to the village. She spent another one year to build the pipe. In these two years, she earned 50% less than Jack, due to the commitment on learning and building the pipe. Jack always mocked her as a crazy girl in the village during the two years.

After the completion of the pipe, Jack was still going up and down the hill to fetch water. Jill however has a better life now. She just needed to turned on the pipe in the village to fill up water for the villagers. Also she can now charge less than Jack.

The villagers were very happy and satisfied with Jill's service as it is fast and efficient. More villagers are willing to get the water from Jill rather than Jack as they do not want to wait and is cheaper. Sooner or later, Jack was workless as no villagers want to get water from him. He regretted what he said to Jill in the past few years.

The morale of the story:
1) Have a open heart when someone share a idea with you. Do not shoot down their ideas or mock anyone based on your ignorance. There is a saying in one of the Zen stories, "You must empty your own cup first, before other people can fill up the cup for you."

2) If you keep doing the same thing without any improvement or better services, sooner or later you will be replaced. There is no such thing as stable job now.

3) If you failed to plan now, you plan to fail in the future.

4) Building a pipe from the hill to the village is the same as building up your assets. The more assets you have, the higher your passive income will be.

Purpose of this story:

Many people are afraid of doing something different from the majority. When someone want to try out new thing, they are often mocked or discouragement by the majority due to their ignorance. My stand is do not be afraid of trying out new things.

What is financial freedom?

What is financial freedom?

Before explaining what financial freedom is, there are two terms you need to know. They are active incomes and passive incomes.

What is active income?
Active incomes are incomes that you get by doing some services for other. One example of active income is money that you earn by working for other. There is nothing wrong with this type of income, but this is not the income that will make you rich. You are using time to exchange with money. Logically the more you work, the more you earn. But what if you suddenly couldn't work anymore, for example you become very sick permanently? This source of income will stop too. Normally people will only focus on this source of income, which is why very few become rich after working for their whole lives.

What is passive income?
Passive incomes are incomes that you received without doing anything at all. Yes, you can treat it as money dropping from the sky. So how can it be possible? Some examples are rental you collect by renting out your room or the whole house, interest that received in your fixed deposit and dividends that you collect from your stocks. People who focus on this source of income will slowly become richer and eventually their passive income is more than their active income.

For the term financial freedom, it means that your passive income is more than your expenses, and you will no longer need to have any active income (or need to work anymore).

Building a Billion- Dollar business

Building a billion-dollar business




By NOAH KAGAN



EVER since I was a little kid I wanted to be rich. I think most of us do; however, we might not think about how to get there.



I once had a friend who was a child prodigy, highly respected by the Silicon Valley community. His sole goal was to create a billion-dollar business - nothing else mattered. Because of this, he rejected ideas that were either way too small or did not monetise well enough.



He took one year to develop different ideas and one idea in particular grew very large. However, at the end of the year, he threw it all away. This was because despite having millions of users, he had no real product, no value, no love and no engagement. His main problem was that he put the business before the users.



Having spent a lot of time both failing and succeeding, I have assembled some advice for aspiring entrepreneurs on how to build a billion-dollar business.



1. Focus



Focusing on how you can become a big business is the first mistake. Instead, it is better to focus on creating something ultra-valuable to your users.



Focusing on large billion-dollar exits only sets your business too far in the future and misses all the details you need to get there. The question you should be asking your users is, 'How would you feel if we were not around any more?' It is when they answer that they cannot live without it, that you know you have a winner.

GET SET FOR A WILD RIDE ; FENGSHUI INDEX

Get set for a wild ride: Fengshui Index
By Dawn Zeng
IF YOU are an investor who likes a smooth ride with little volatility, it might pay to sit out the next 12 months.
That's because riding the Golden Tiger is anything but smooth.
Don't take our word for it. The wand bearers at CLSA Securities in Hong Kong have been crystal-ball gazing to compile their annual Fengshui Index on what lies ahead.
In short, it looks rough - and history, after all, is on their side.
They warn that the typically tumultuous Tiger years are not for the faint-hearted. Stock markets tanked in 1962 and 1998, the year of the Water Tiger and Earth Tiger respectively, then-US President Richard Nixon resigned over Watergate in 1974, and August 1998 marked the start of the Russian financial crisis.
But if you are armed with courage and conviction, opportunities abound, according to the CLSA gurus - who have nailed some trends previously but would readily admit that the tongue-in-cheek index has not always proved reliable.
Recall that some of their predictions for the Year of the Earth Ox last year were right on the money: Gold surged past US$1,000 an ounce and the market bottomed despite bearish sentiment at the start of last year.

Thinking Big Is the Plan

Thinking Big Is The Best Plan

Years ago, when I was just starting my real estate investing career, I came across a property with a for-sale sign on it. I called the broker and asked, "What can you tell me about the property, and how much does it cost?"

The broker politely and patiently said, "It's a commercial building with six tenants. There's a chiropractor, a dentist, a hairstylist, an accountant, and a bail bondsman. The price is two million dollars."

Losing Big
I almost choked. "Two million dollars?! That's way too expensive!"

Thirty years ago, $2 million was a lot of money. And instead of looking at the property, I let the price frighten me off. I never looked at the deal, and just assumed that the seller was crazy, greedy, and out of touch with the market.

Today, there's a luxury hotel on the same site. It's spectacular. I estimate the property to be worth at least $150 million, and maybe more.

Cheap Lessons
Not seeing the potential of that deal taught me many lessons. Here are two important ones:
• Sometimes you learn more by being stupid and making mistakes.
• The person with the better plan wins.

In the above example, my plan was just too small. In fact, the only plan I had at the time was to collect the rent money from the tenants, cover my mortgage and expenses, and put a little in my pocket. And 30 years ago, I knew that the rent from six small tenants couldn't possibly pay for a $2 million property.

I later learned that the property's eventual owner bought it for full price – with terms. He put $50,000 down as an option and asked for 180 days to put the rest of his plan together. During those 180 days, he gathered his investors, a builder, and his tenant, a major hotel chain.

If he hadn't been able to put his plan together, he would've lost his option money. Instead, before the 180 days were up, his investors paid the $2 million in cash, and he spent the next three years getting the project through the city planning commission and finally began construction. He won because he had a better plan.

Mind Expansion
Donald Trump often says to "think big." He definitely does so, but by nature, I don't. My excuse is that I come from a small town in Hawaii. My family wasn't rich, so when it comes to money, I tend to think err on the side of caution. Over time, my thinking has become medium-sized when it comes to spotting opportunities, but I'd still like to think bigger.

One of the reasons I enjoy doing business in New York and having Trump as a partner on different projects is that he makes me do just that – because if you don't think big in New York, you get kicked out. If I thought small, I wouldn't be on television, cutting book deals with major publishers, or talking in front of tens of thousands of people in arenas like Madison Square Garden.

Currently, I'm working on a real estate project to present to Donald. Consequently, I find myself pushing my thinking, expanding my context, and thinking of luxury, not just price. Even if Donald doesn't like the project and we don't partner on it, just preparing to present the project to him has required me to think bigger and come up with a better plan.

A Blast from the Past
About a year ago, someone called to say that there was a spectacular condominium that had just come up for sale. She wanted to know if I was interested in looking at it. Of course I said, "Yes." I wanted to see what her definition of spectacular was, and trust me – it was spectacular. She then said, "And the price is only twenty-eight million dollars. But I believe you can pick it up for twenty-four million. At that price, this condo is a steal."

Once again, I heard myself saying what I said so long ago: "That's too expensive." But, as I said, that lesson from 30 years back proved to be priceless: After hearing the think-small person in me comment on the condo price, I took a deep breath and asked myself, "What's my plan?" Then I asked myself, "What's wrong with my plan?"

I didn't buy the condo, but I did come up with a better plan. Over the next few days, I realized that the reason I couldn't afford the condo was because my business was too small. If I wanted to afford such a luxury residence, I needed to come up with a better plan for my business. Today, I'm working harder than ever to improve it – not because I want the condo, but to be able afford such a condo if I someday decide I want one.

Plan Ahead
In many of my Yahoo! Finance columns, I've written about my concern over the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. As the dollar drops in purchasing power, it often pushes up the prices of real assets – quality real estate and equities. My fear is that many people may not be able to afford tangible assets and become poorer as the dollar declines. This drop in purchasing power also widens the gap between the rich and everyone else.

One method of staying ahead of rising asset prices and the declining dollar is to think bigger and come up with better plans. As important as financial and business planning is a plan for personal development and self-improvement. I'm often asked to invest in people's business plans, and one of the reasons I turn many of them down is because a big plan requires a big person who's spent time on personal development. In a lot of cases, a business plan is far bigger than the person with the plan – that is, the dream is bigger than the dreamer.

Today, I'm glad I missed out on that $2 million property all those years ago. The best lesson I learned from it is that I can have a better life if I have a better plan – and a plan to become better person. So what's your plan?

Persistence

What is it that separates those who are successful from those who are not?Successful individuals have a strong personal vision of what they want and why they want it.That vision gives them the strength to stick to their strategies even when doing so is uncomfortable. It gives them the determination to persist when they are discouraged.

Back To Basics to Grow Money

Back to basics to grow money
By Larry Haverkamp

DO you know the difference between a stock and a bond?
It is this: a stock means you own part of the company. A bond means you loaned it money.

Stocks and bonds are also called 'equity' and 'debt'. All investments fall into these two categories.
Both are ways for firms to get money to pay their bills or buy more assets for expansion.
A typical debt-equity split is 50/50. It means the business is financed half with debt and half with equity.
Companies get debt by borrowing, usually from banks. The equity comes from owners as well as past income that was never paid out as dividends.
It accumulates and is called 'retained earnings'.
That brings me to a new buzzword from this recession: De-leveraging. It means everyone wants fewer risks and it changes the world's debt to equity split from 50/50 to something less, like, 33/67.
Then, assets are financed one-third from debt and two-thirds from equity.
De-leveraging in action
Take 2006. A company may have had $200 million in assets, financed by $100m in debt and $100m in equity.
Now, in 2009, it still has $100m in equity, but debt would have fallen to $50m. It means only $150m in assets can be financed, and leaves the company no choice but to operate on a smaller scale than before.
De-leveraging hits households too. Banks now require that you put down more of your own money to buy a car or a home.
This is the 'new normal' and is likely to be with us for a long time.
Is it good or bad? Well, on the plus side, fewer risks mean not as many ups and downs in the economy. We will have fewer big recessions.
As explained, however, less debt means fewer assets to work with. The world will operate on a smaller scale. It will need fewer factories, office buildings and workers too.
It means lower growth and higher unemployment. Incomes will grow more slowly. Prepare to tighten your belt.
How to invest in the future
A company with more equity (ownership) and less debt (borrowing) is safer.
For an investor, it's the opposite: You take big risks when you own shares of a company (equity), and the safer investment is bonds (debt).
Which should you go for, high risk or low?
Most people say: Low risk. Why take chances?
The trouble with that is you also get lower returns.
Ok, let's try for high returns instead. Sorry. Then you have the problem of big risks. Hey, you can't win!
It is true. The pluses and minuses are exactly offsetting. As risks increases, so do returns.
Neither choice is better. Both are equal and fair. The choice depends on your risk preference. It is a personal decision.
Women, for example, often prefer safer investments while men take more risks.
Retirees usually go for safety while young people don't mind taking risks.
Here is a good rule of thumb: The per cent of safe investments should equal your age.
It means at age 50, you would divide your money equally between bonds and stocks. At age 90, you would have 90 per cent in safe assets like bonds and fixed deposits.
Risk v returns: advanced
A word of caution. Most people think higher risks mean higher returns. It's not always true.
Take gambling. The risks are very high but returns are low. In fact, they are negative. You are sure to lose in the long run.
It is also true for investments in contracts called 'derivatives'. Examples are options, futures, warrants, swaps and forward contracts.
(i) They expire after a few months and (ii) all gains and losses are offsetting, making them zero-sum before commissions. These two features make them more similar to gambling than investing.
Worse still, derivatives often come with high leverage. It magnifies the risks by 10 to 20 times while the average returns remain negative.
It isn't all bad. Derivatives can also reduce risks through 'hedging'. This is done by big companies and banks.
Most people use derivatives for 'speculation'.
This article was first published in The New Paper.

Money Law

In Personal Finance or Financial Freedom . “Financial Principles” which are as useful and practical today.I’ve personally benefited tremendously and applying the principles therein and have experienced improvement in my own finances. Knowing and not doing it, is not yet knowing”. For example, You know that exercise is good for your Health yet many people are lazy to exercise. Knowledge is only POTENTIAL power. Knowledge is ONLY power when APPLIED.
1. Money comes gladly and in increasing quantity to any person who save at least 20% of his/her earnings (first step to Financial Freedom).
There are only 3 Cashflow Scenarios:
a. You spend more than you earn: This person has negative cashflows, spending future money and likely to end up owing other people money (eg. credit cards, friends, relatives, loan sharks). b. You spend all that you earn: whether this person is earning SGD$500 a month or SGD$300,000 a month, he/she is still "Just over broke".
c. You spend less than you earn (eg. save 20% or more of your earnings if possible). as time goes by, this person will automatically get richer and richer. I read SUNDAY TIMES this rich man say “every dollar you earn, do not spend more than 30cents” .Which cashflow scenario do you want to CHOOSE for yourself? 2. Money can work for you, if you become the “wise owner” of money and make money work for you. (note: you’re the Master, money is the slave, while many people are guilty of being slaves to money).

FOR EXTRA VALUE, FOCUS ON YEILD

For extra value, focus on yield
By Dennis Chan , DEPUTY MONEY EDITOR
As a value investor, I am naturally attracted to investments that produce decent yields. This is because these investments tend to be more stable and less likely to give one a heart attack.
Other more gung-ho investors may prefer investing purely for capital gains, even if they are to get little or no yield.
My interest was therefore piqued when The Straits Trading Company last month offered for sale 10 units of its Gallop Gables condominium at Farrer Road by dangling a big carrot in the form of a guaranteed rental yield of 7 per cent for two years.
For those who are unfamiliar with the term, yield is the recurring annual income you get divided by the amount you paid for an investment. In properties, yield is derived from rental income. In stocks and shares, it is based on dividends that companies pay.
With savings in banks drawing a paltry annual interest of half a per cent or less these days, Straits Trading's offer was understandably snapped up by eager buyers.
Seasoned property investors will tell you that it's rare to get rental yields as high as 7 per cent, not unless you convert your property illegally into a workers' dormitory. For residential properties, a yield of 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent is the norm.
As an investment class, real estate generally provides a lower yield compared to investing in corporate bonds and equities. This is an acceptable trade-off as the risks of investing in physical properties are lower than those for stocks and shares.
The focus on yield, however, is only half the picture.
Another pertinent question an investor should ask is whether the current yield of a property is real or sustainable.
According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority, rents for private homes in the first quarter fell by 8.5 per cent. They had dropped by 5.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year.
In a prolonged economic downturn such as the one we are probably experiencing, there is further room for rents to fall. This is notwithstanding the recent revival in the residential property market.
On the demand side, numerous companies have slashed or are reducing head counts. Some have stopped operations altogether while many more have cut the pay of their staff. There is less discretionary income all around.
On the supply side, vacancy rates are likely to rise as more new homes are completed while some older developments that were earmarked for demolition have been put back into the rental market as their redevelopment plans get frozen.
Rising capital prices combined with falling rents spell bad news for yields, something property investors should be mindful of.
Equity investors tend to be more savvy when it comes to matters of investment yields and their sustainability.
Which is why the stock market today is littered with numerous instances of shares that seemed to be going for a song when measured against their historical yield. Stock investors are not buying these high yielding stocks because they suspect they will not repeat the high dividend payouts of the previous year.
To be sure, there are people who see real estate investing purely as a capital gain game. In the bull run from 2005 to 2007, many home owners were content to leave their units unoccupied while waiting for the right opportunity to resell them for a big profit.
Such windfalls are harder to come by in the current climate and a prudent investor cannot afford to look through the prism of 2007 and hope for a repeat of these fabulous gains any time soon.
For investors who acquire properties with the help of a bank loan, rental yield takes on added significance.
Mortgage rates currently vary from as low as 1.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent or more. As an investment, income from renting out a property should preferably be able to cover the monthly bank interest charges plus a portion of the principal repayment.
For those lucky enough to obtain a low rate such as Standard Chartered Bank's 1.5 per cent promotional offer for the first year, the bar for rental income is low.
But for those who are locked in to significantly higher rates, their rental income should at least match the interest they are paying for their mortgages if they don't want to end up working for the bank for free.
Don't forget, mortgage rates tend to rise over time as initial teaser rates give way to prevailing ones. One way for a borrower to maintain a low mortgage rate is through the regular refinancing of his home loan. But this assumes that the current low interest rate environment will remain benign.
Refinancing may not be feasible if the property's valuation has fallen sharply or if the refinancing bank decides to offer a lower loan quantum.
Unlike stocks and shares, yields on property investment are also more easily manipulated. A crafty seller can sometimes entice a buyer to overpay for a property by promising an abnormally high rental yield. To achieve this, the seller will sell his property and execute a leaseback agreement with the buyer.
In such a deal, the seller will guarantee the buyer for a limited period - typically not exceeding two years - a monthly rental income that will meet the promised yield.
The seller then sub-leases out the unit to a genuine tenant at the prevailing market rate. If the rent is below the guaranteed amount - as is likely to be the case for an overvalued property - the seller will top up the rental shortfall. But he does not lose out as he is able to count on the extra profit he had made earlier from selling his property at a higher price. The buyer ends up worse off even though he gets a higher monthly income rental for two years.
An example of how this can be done is illustrated in the accompanying table.
Rental guarantees are not illegal and, in fact, are the de rigueur practice of some developers that simply refuse to lower their selling price of unsold, completed projects during a downturn for tactical reasons.
They are also not necessarily detrimental to buyers.
Getting an attractive rental guarantee in today's market will appeal to investors who believe that home prices will recover by 2011 or 2012, as they will enjoy higher-than-usual returns in the next two years while awaiting the recovery to take place.
In the case of the Gallop Gables apartments, the buyers probably got a good deal.
Apart from getting guaranteed rental yield of 7 per cent for two years, these purchases were done, on average, at prices about 23 per cent below what Straits Trading had asked for last July.
The developer has since raised the price of the remaining few units to $1,400 per square foot (psf) from the $1,188 psf average it had sold at in the past six weeks.
But the cheapest unit still went for a tad above $3 million.
If only I had a few million dollars to spare.

ER, What is a bear market rally ?

Er, what is a bear market rally?
By Alvin Foo
Where do you see this?
In newspaper articles and stock market analyst reports.
What does it mean?
A bear market rally is a temporary increase in stock prices during a period when prices are generally plunging over months or years.
This rise usually ranges from 10 per cent to 20 per cent, and even as high as 30 per cent, from the lowest point. Trading volumes also surge.
However, market fundamentals remain weak and do not offer a clue as to why the markets are going up.
Overall investor sentiment would still be negative and cautious.
Why is it important?
This term has been used commonly in recent weeks, as stock markets have seen a substantial rally since early March.
For instance, the Straits Times Index has charged up more than 30 per cent to 1,920 on Thursday, after plunging to a six-year low of 1,456 on March 9.
In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a six-week rebound - its best streak since 1938.
A bear market rally favours nimble traders, who are quick to buy but also swift to take profit.
So you want to use the term? Just say...
'Be wary of investing in equities despite the recent rebound. Experts have warned that this is a bear market rally as the world economy has not yet seen a turnaround.'

Make Market Cycles work for you

Make market cycles work for you
By Dennis Ng

Observing nature, we will notice cycles.
There are, for instance, four seasons, with the cold winter followed by blossoms in the spring. And just when everyone is having fun in the sun, it is good to be mindful that temperatures will drop as autumn approaches. Those who are not prepared with sufficient clothing might freeze when winter returns.
Similarly in the financial markets, there are market cycles where busts follow booms and vice versa. That is why the 'party' ended with a market crash last year, after global stock prices shot up by between 200 and 500 per cent in the last four years.
According to historical analysis, 2008 was one of the worst years for stocks since 1937. For many, this might be depressing news but for me, this is exciting news. By observing market cycles and investing accordingly, one can try to time the market.
I would say that in the short term, it is difficult to time the market correctly on a consistent basis. However, it is definitely possible to roughly estimate at which stage of the market cycle we are in.
For instance, in 2007, the stock market was in its fourth bullish year. Back then, the Straits Times Index (STI) had risen about 200 per cent from a low of 1,226 in March 2003 to over 3,600 points.
As far as I remember, the Singapore stock market has never had a bull market that lasted more than five years. Believing back then that we were near the tail end of a bull market, I sold most of my stocks and avoided the market carnage that followed a few months after that.
The steps to 'market cycle investing' are simple.

First, we try to estimate at which stage of the market cycle we are in.

Secondly, we try to identify the major trend direction - upwards or downwards.

Finally, we position ourselves accordingly; basically, the strategy to take is to go with the trend instead of going against the trend.

For instance, if you bought stocks during 2004 when the stock market was on an uptrend, it was easy to make money since most stocks were moving up in price. However, when stock markets were in retreat last year, it was very difficult to avoid losing money on stocks, simply because most stocks fell in price in accordance with the general market direction.
Some people firmly believe in the 'buy and hold' strategy, holding on to their stocks through thick and thin, whether the stock market is moving up or down.
I used to be one of them until I realised I lost out on a lot of opportunities by not selling out when markets were high and buying back again when markets were low. We do have to be mindful of opportunity costs. In the last bear market from March 2000 to March 2003, I also observed that when the tide turned, almost all stock prices went down, including blue chips.
Let me give an example: DBS Group Holdings' share price was as low as $8 in 2003; it hovered between $8 and $10 for close to one year. If you practised market cycle investing, and even if you had missed the bottom, you could have easily bought the bank's shares at about $10.
In 2007, after four years of bull runs, DBS' share price shot up to as high as $25 and hovered between $20 and $25 for more than one year.
Again, even if you missed the top, you could have easily sold DBS shares when the price was about $20. By buying at $10 and selling at $20, you would have easily pocketed a 100 per cent return over four years. Not bad at all.
Similarly, by practising market cycle investing, after selling out at $20, and after one year of a bear market, you can now easily buy back DBS shares at less than $10 again.
On the other hand, if you had bought DBS shares at $10 in 2003 and steadfastly held on to them through 'thick and thin', you would have basically enjoyed the 'roller-coaster ride' of the market but would have no profits to show after five years.
Of course, nobody knows when the market will bottom. My experience is that I was early and invested all my money by early 2002. However, I was one year too early as the Singapore stock market bottomed only in March 2003.
Despite missing the bottom by 12 months, I still managed to achieve over 200 per cent in returns riding the four-year bull market that followed.
Thus, by practising market cycle investing, one would inevitably buy when prices are low, and sell out when prices are high.
By doing so, you have also reduced your risks of losing money.

BIG INVESTOR BUT FRUGAL SPENDER

Big investor but frugal spender
By Lorna Tan
Despite being a multimillionaire, entrepreneur-cum-motivational speaker, Adam Khoo still hesitates before spending on consumer products like his iPhone.
However, when it comes to investments, the founder of Adam Khoo Learning Technologies Group wouldn't even think twice when investing, say, $50,000 in stocks. This is because stocks are expected to potentially generate more money, he says.
A conservative and long-term investor, he prefers to invest in cash-rich, large-cap companies that have low debts and the potential to consistently increase their earnings.
His group, which focuses on education, comprises 16 firms in seven countries with an annual turnover of $15 million. He also took over his father's advertising firm, Adcom, in 1999.
A business administration degree holder from the National University of Singapore, Mr Khoo - who is all of 34 - is also known for his motivational books. Last month, he launched his ninth book, Profit From Panic, which gives practical tips on how to deal with the current economic crisis.
He is married to Ms Sally Ong, 38, who is a director at one of his firms. The couple have two daughters - Kelly, five, and Samantha, three.
Q: Are you a saver or spender?
One of the factors that helped me build up my wealth over the years is that I am relatively frugal.
I have always saved at least 50 per cent of my income and I don't believe in spending a lot of money on luxuries. I buy clothes once a year only when I'm in Bangkok or Indonesia. Usually I visit a shop for half an hour and pick up 10 shirts and trousers at one go. I am a person of simple taste, except when it comes to cars. I like fast cars.
I invest 100 per cent of my savings consistently. But when the market gets too overvalued, I hold a larger proportion in cash as a precautionary measure.
Q: How much do you charge to your credit cards each month?
I have three credit cards but I use only one regularly for my personal expenditure. I chalk up about $2,000 to $3,000 every month. I use my credit card instead of cash whenever I can for easy tracking purposes. I withdraw about $200 from the ATM each time.
I pay my credit card bill every month and if I get charged 10 cents for late payment interest, I will scream. I don't believe in paying the annual fee too and will ask the bank to waive it.
Q: What financial planning have you done for yourself?
My portfolio, which I manage myself, is made up of the following investments: property that I rent out, private businesses, Singapore stocks, US stocks and exchange- traded funds (ETFs). My investments have generated an average return of over 20 per cent per annum.
Currently, I have about US$400,000 (S$611,000) in US stocks, such as Boeing, Google, Nike, Pepsico, and ETFs, and another $400,000 in Singapore stocks, such as CapitaLand, OCBC Bank, the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bestworld and STI ETF.
When it comes to insurance, I believe in buying term and investing the rest. Still, I bought seven traditional plans such as whole life and endowment when I was young, because my wife is a former AIA agent and I had bought them from her. About four years ago, I bought a term with cover of $1 million which brings my total life cover to about $2 million.
Q: What property do you own?
In 1998, I bought a 1,300 sq ft condominium in East Coast for $480,000 and rented it out for about $3,000. I sold it for $650,000 in 2004.
I also have a 5,000 sq ft semi- detached house in East Coast which was bought four years ago for $1.3 million.
Early last year, I bought a 900 sq ft condo at Robertson Quay for $1.3 million. I'm renting it out at $4,000.
Q: Moneywise, what were your growing-up years like?
I come from a wealthy family where my father and uncles are savvy business people and investors. That background influenced my values, beliefs and attitudes towards the possibility of building immense wealth when one is prepared to work hard and educate oneself.
My father started his advertising firm Adcom in 1972 and mum was editor of the women's magazine, Her World. I was the only child. We lived in a bungalow in Changi.
However, what gave me the drive to build my own wealth and to value money is that my father is an extremely frugal man, and that rubbed off a lot on me. In those days, my dad would not even buy a brand-new car despite his wealth. He would compare prices of toilet paper and toothpaste all over the supermarket before deciding what to buy.
Q: How did you get interested in investing?
Every Chinese New Year, from the time I was 15, my grandfather would give me hongbao with cash plus Malaysian shares like Genting, Kuantan Flour Mill and Hicom.
When I was in the army, I started dabbling in shares.
At about that time, I was inspired by a book I read, Buffetology, based on the success and work of Warren Buffett. I was amazed by a man who was able to build his wealth purely through investing.
Q: What's the most extravagant thing you have bought?
A $230,000 red Lotus bought last October. It's a reward for myself.
Q: What's your retirement plan?
My passive income from book royalties, dividends and business profits is enough to cover my expenses so, technically, I can stop working if I really wanted to.
Q: Home now is...?
I live in the semi-detached house in East Coast.
Q: I drive...?
A red Lotus Elise and a red BMW convertible.
This article was first published in The Straits Times.

Missed ! Now, How to pick yourself up ?

Missed! Now, how to pick yourself up?
BUYERS now have another 'beware' to add to their long list. Beware of those who call themselves financial advisers.
Well, with faith in banks shattered, what else would you expect?
Trust no one now?
Mercifully, it's not that grim. You can still turn to the Financial Industry Dispute Resolution Centre (FIDReC) for help.
When contacted, former NTUC Income CEO Tan Kin Lian, who has been helping affected investors in his private capacity, feels that brokerages and financial advisory firms should share the responsibility, together with their clients.
He said: 'How can brokerages sell a risky product, then say that they are merely order-executors? Similarly, the financial advisers cannot make themselves out to be advisers, yet not make their roles as introducers clear to their clients.
'I cannot sell a drug which causes the people who take it to die, then say that it is not my fault. I have to make sure that the medicine I sell is okay.'
He said: 'It would be fair if the customer bears 50per cent, while the brokerage and the financial advisers bear 25 per cent each of the losses.'
Can't afford, don't buy
Mr David Gerald, president and chief executive of the Securities Investors Association of Singapore, said: 'We live in a buyer beware market, people have to be responsible for the choices they make.
'So, I always advise investors that if they do not understand the product, don't touch it. If they cannot afford it, don't buy it.'
He said that the elderly couple mentioned in the report on page 2 have two means of recourse: FIDReC or a civil suit.
At FIDReC, mediation is free, and legally-trained people will be able to advise the couple, said MrGerald.
They could also engage a lawyer, he said, but he felt it was not advisable to do so, as it was an expensive process, and they might end up paying the legal costs of the other party if they lose the suit.
The learning point is that it's not enough just to know the product you are buying now.
You also need to know who you are buying from.
Ask if independent financial advisers are only 'introducing' you to a product.
Compare this to, say, bank relationship managers who 'advise' you to buy the same product.
Not knowing the difference between the two roles can really cost you.
Getting your money back is about proving mis-selling.
Put simply, it's about proving you were given bad, wrong, or unsuitable advice.
Some independent financial advisers may even produce a document you signed, confirming they were 'introducers' - a document which, you realise too late, actually absolves them from responsibility if things go wrong.
What if you argue that some of the things said to you during the 'introduction' sounded like advice?
Well, it's your word against theirs, always difficult on either side to prove.
So how about the brokerage companies that these clients get 'introduced' to, to buy the product from?
Sorry, we were just 'executing' the order, say some of the companies. We didn't 'advise' you either. So don't blame us.
The numbers are telling. Among those who bought from stockbroking firms, only just over 10 per cent received any settlement.
The lesson for the small-time investor is this: Make it clear that you're seeking advice. Put it in writing. Fill the questionnaires to make your concerns known. Keep copies.
Trust no one, I say.

Tay Shi'an
Mon, Feb 02, 2009The New Paper

HOW TO MAKE MONEY in 2009

How to make money in 2009
By Lorna Tan and Michelle Tay

What a roller-coaster ride the year 2008 has been.
Stock markets have tanked, rallied, then tanked again. Home prices are dipping, the economy is shrinking, and wages have hit a plateau.null
And let's not even talk about the people who have lost millions and millions in Lehman Brothers- linked structured products.
While the peaks have been few and far between, the troughs have left people scrambling to find the bottom - and everybody is tightening their (seat)belts and hanging on for dear life.
Yet, despite the projected gloom in 2009, the new year represents a new start for many.
If you still have the funds to invest, should you buy stocks, a car or a house?
What lessons have financial experts learnt that you can also glean wisdom from?
Invest brings you the best investment advice from 10 savvy investors.
Mr Jim Rogers, Singapore-based American investor, author of A Bull In China: Investing Profitably In The World's Greatest Market, and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index
What was the best and worst thing that happened to you financially this year?
Best: Being short on Fannie Mae and the United States investment banks. These stocks collapsed, some by 100 per cent, so I made huge percentage gains on them in 2008.
Worst: Being long on anything at all.
How do you see 2009 panning out?
Most economies and financial markets will get worse as the year progresses.
We are in a historic period of forced liquidation which has happened only eight or nine times in the past 100 to 150 years. There is a forced reversal of positions with no regard to the fundamentals. One makes money in times like this by finding things with unimpaired fundamentals because they will become market leaders.
The only thing I know with unimpaired fundamentals are raw materials and commodities. In fact, their fundamentals are enhanced. Reserves and inventories of everything are declining while governments worldwide are printing huge amounts of money, which has always led to higher prices down the road.
So commodities are the best place to be.
Some parts of the Chinese economy will do well too.
What is one piece of financial advice you would give a person looking ahead in 2009?
Learn about real assets, raw materials and commodities as the fundamentals are improving there, while the fundamentals are deteriorating in most other sectors.
Would your answer be different for a) a single, working person; b) a married couple with school-going children; and c) a retiree?
No.
Is it a good time to buy a car or property?
I am not buying either.
One can get great deals on cars now so I guess it is a good time to buy a car, if one really needs one. Otherwise, I would wait. My view is that property will still be declining in much of the world for at least another year or two. There will be some special places in the world where property will be okay, but they will be few.
Mr Ben Fok, chief executive of Grandtag Financial Consultancy
What was the best and worst thing that happened to you financially this year?
Best: My equity portfolio was down by only less than 15 per cent. I had lightened the majority of my stock portfolio in September when the Fed was taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I sold part of my equity portfolio bit by bit as the bad news was revealed one by one. Now I am very light in equities and heavy in cash. I also did not invest in, or advise my clients to invest in, any structured products.
Worst: I totally forgot about my Supplementary Retirement Scheme (SRS) account. I did nothing to it and it was down by at least 40 per cent.
How do you see 2009 panning out?
It will be an uneventful year for the financial markets. There will be bad news as the world slips deeper into recession and then tries to recover from it. Some people are calling a market bottom but I think, at best, the stock market will be in a tight trading range until there is strong evidence from macroeconomic indicators that growth is beginning to stabilise. But that does not mean ignoring the market at all. On the contrary, I believe it is time to take calculated risks as equities tend to react ahead of an improvement in the economy.
What is one piece of financial advice you would give a person looking ahead in 2009?
Proceed with caution when entering the stock market. While many stocks are heavily sold down and are looking very attractive, the world macroeconomic picture is not that bright.
Therefore, attractive valuations of certain stock markets must be weighed against the risks stemming from a global recession that will trigger a cyclical contraction in corporate earnings.
The world economy will take at least a year to recover from this financial shock and we cannot rule out further corrections in the coming months. Invest with what you can afford to lose and remember the stock market has no human emotions.
To protect yourself from downside risk, look to invest in undervalued stocks or stocks that are selling below net asset value. Look also at sectors with stable earnings.
Would your answer be different for a) a single, working person; b) a married couple with school-going children; and c) a retiree?
a) Now is the best time to stock-pick. Usually, this group of people has fewer liabilities and a longer time horizon to hold on to fundamentally sound stocks. The recommended asset allocation is 100 per cent equities.
b) Invest in the stock market, with some exposure in bonds. Currently, corporate bonds are attractive despite rising default rates. The recommended asset allocation is 60 to 70 per cent in equities and 30 to 40 per cent in bonds.
c) As they need to create an income stream and have a shorter time horizon, investing in bonds is the best asset class and the least volatile. However, a small exposure to stocks is also recommended. I would recommend 20 to 30 per cent equities and 70 to 80 per cent bonds.

Given the financial situation, is it a good time to buy a car or property?
Certificate of entitlement (COE) prices are down substantially...and interest rates are at rock-bottom prices. However, bear in mind that a car is a depreciating asset and the benefits of convenience also come with price tags. So before you buy that car, ask yourself if you really need one.
If you are looking for a home or even an investment property, now is the best time to shop around and you may get it at bargain prices from a fire sale. Again, before you do that, review your financial situation, make sure you can afford the monthly instalments and remember that this is a big ticket item. Buying a car and a property requires a loan which adds to your financial burden.

THRIFTY IS NIFTY

Cheng Zi fell under the banner of "kou kou zu", or the "stingy group", soon after she went to university.
"I realised it was wrong for us students not to care about our finances just because we don't work," she says.
"Actually, we do have a job. We take classes and our parents pay for it."
Cheng, a senior university student in Shaanxi province, says that "kou kou zu" means maintaining a high standard of living for the cheapest cost.
For instance, she only buys new clothes when she has sold some of her old ones. She also shops online, where clothes are much cheaper, discounts are always on offer and delivery is often free. She normally eats in the school canteen and rarely eats out in decent restaurants.
She has also learned many cost-cutting ideas from "kou kou" people in the workforce.
"Students are not suffering from the financial crisis as much as those in work," she says. "Many of my schoolmates worry about how much money their families have lost or will lose in the stock market."
What really worries Cheng and other students is the impact of the global recession on their job prospects. They are being as frugal as they can to prepare for rainy days ahead.
Other "kou kous" are using more public transport, downloading free books and music instead of buying them, using credit cards less and eating homemade lunches.
Cheng adds: "They've also taught me how to pay less for electricity and water bills, by washing small clothes like underwear and socks by hand, unplugging electrical outlets before leaving the room and using leftover water to flush the toilet. I've started to implement some of these tips. It is good to prepare early for my independent days ahead."
Money savers like Cheng counter the notion that China's post-80s generation is full of spoiled, free-spending youngsters and while other students around the world face a tough Christmas, they are benefiting from their thriftiness.
Some, like Cheng, changed their lifestyles some time ago but the worldwide crisis has swelled the number of 20-something "kou kou zu".
Online communities are cluttered with their mantras: "We don't take taxis we don't go shopping there is no eating out we can manage the housework ourselves."
Once upon a time Cheng's parents gave her 700-1,000 yuan (US$100-143) a month and she would spend it all before she had realised it and couldn't figure out when and where. Now she limits her monthly outgoings to about 300 yuan and last year opened an online store selling clothes and ornaments.
The business makes a profit of 600-1,000 yuan a month and has been a life-changing experience. "My parents were taken aback one day when, instead of asking them for money like I used to, I told them that I could live on my own," she says. "Now I have several thousand yuan in the bank, 80 per cent of which comes from my online shop. Sometimes I buy them presents. I'm so proud of myself."
In Fujian province, Zhang Yan has persuaded some of her friends to become a "kou kou" but had more trouble with others. "They are lukewarm about it, since they feel little pressure from the crisis," she says. "They don't think it's necessary to be so stingy.
"But I tell them this is not just a response to the crisis--it's something you can benefit from your whole life. Plus, it is environmentally friendly and represents a healthy and positive life attitude."
Others find having a handle on their spending ensures they always have some available.
Every night for the last year, Zhang has been punching her expenses into an online accounting system to determine if she has spent her money wisely or not. Now her savings are steadily rising.
"In previous years I invested in stocks and funds because I thought saving money in the bank was quite silly," she says. "But when the bubble burst, I came to realise the importance of stable savings accounts."
Zhang's conviction grew even stronger when she read that Americans on average save at best 1 per cent of their monthly incomes. "Now they're suffering from both the economic crisis and the consequences of low savings."
Zhang's online accounting system, www.qian8ao.com, has received about 2,000 new users each day for the last two months, a 50 per cent increase on previous months.
While high street shops fear the harshest conditions since the Great Depression of the 1930s, online retailers are more upbeat, on the back of an upsurge in website shopping over the past year.
"Online products are much cheaper than those in shopping malls and are often of good quality," says Zhao Li, a young mother in Suzhou, Jiangsu province.
She also hedges her bets. "Sometimes, if I want a pair of luxury brand shoes, I will try them on in a shopping centre and then order them online, where they cost much less."
Statistics from the Chinese Academy of Social Science show that by last June there were 162 million netizens in China, 70 percent of them under 30. The Internet Society of China, meanwhile, noted in its annual China Netguide 2008 that an average netizen spent 186.6 yuan online in 2007, expected to rise to 198.6 this year.
"Consumers are shopping more on the Internet, where they can both save cash and live a high-quality life," says Zhang Lingxiao, from www.taobao.com, a major Chinese online retailer.
"Chinese people still represent great buying potential," says Zhang, "and we believe that online retailing may help businesses survive the financial winter."
by: China Daily ANN

Let Finance Crisis "Drive you to Drink"

Let finance crisis 'drive you to drink'

Whisky
Why you should invest: The value of whisky has not dropped in the last 720 years since they started making it in Ireland, said Mr Bill Hedman, managing director of venture capitalist firm Delemere Enterprises, which has its own distillery in Australia.
'At the very worst, if your investment crashes, you can go and get drunk on very good whisky, instead of holding on to a worthless piece of paper,' he added.
How to invest: You can buy whisky by the bottle or by the barrel.
What you should consider: The taste, rarity and reputation of the whisky, based on reviews by critics.
Investor tips: General manager of La Maison du Whisky Emmanuel Dron, who also invests in whisky, advises investors to buy only award-winning or limited-edition whiskies if they wish to get a good return on their investment.
Some bottles Mr Dron thinks are good buys - if you can still get your hands on one - are the limited-edition Laphroaig single-malt scotch whisky from 1974, which had only 910 bottles released worldwide.
The whisky won the award for the best whisky in the world in 2003.
A bottle cost $700 two years ago, but the price has shot up to $2,500 and will 'carry on increasing', Mr Dron said.
How much you need: If you are buying whisky by the bottle, the cheapest ones start at $80. If you are buying by the barrel, you need to set aside $30,000, which would include insurance, storage and bottling costs.
Wine
Why you should invest: Fine wine has been known to outperform stocks for the last three to five years, said Mr Andrew Bassett, trading director at the Australian Wine Index.
'The price of fine wines rarely goes backwards,' he said, adding that investors can look at returns of between 1 to 12 per cent per annum.
How to invest: You can buy wines by the bottle as an individual investor, or look for brokers like the Australian Wine Index to manage your portfolio.
What you should consider: Price of the wine, the vintage report containing details of how the grapes grew that year and whether it was a good crop, and critics' ratings.
You also need to be prepared to hold on to your wines for at least three years for more attractive returns.
Mr Bassett said: 'The worst market situation we have now is that people are selling their wines at 11 per cent profit instead of their expected 28to 32 per cent profit because it is a buyer's market now, and everyone is pushing prices lower.'
Still, Mr Bassett feels that wine is a 'good, solid investment' because while the prices of stocks and shares can drop by as much as 80 per cent, the worst that wine prices can do is to stagnate.
Investor tips: Mr Bassett feels that it is a 'great time' to buy Australian wines now, especially since the exchange rate has dropped by about 30per cent, so you can get good value for money.
Two years ago, one of Mr Bassett's clients bought a bottle of 2005 Mollydooker wine. It cost $125 a bottle then, but his client sold it this year for $350 a bottle.
Mr Bassett said that investors should maintain a portfolio of 70 per cent 'blue chip' wines and 30 per cent cult and emerging wines, which are more risky but have the potential for very high returns.
Art and antique furniture
Why you should invest: For a good collectible item, the price will never come down, said The Tomlinson Collection's regional manager Jack Thew.
How to invest: Buy art pieces and learn the tricks of the trade through personal experience, or find a respectable dealer.
What you should consider: Investing in art and antiques, unlike the stock market, is not purely about money.
Potential investors should understand trends in art and appreciate the beauty of the pieces in their own right, instead of buying them just as pure investments, said Mr Thew.
Investor tips: Chinese classical designs are an all-time favourite, said Mr Thew, with hard wood furniture made of Zitan wood and Huanghuali wood fetching the highest prices, sometimes more than $100,000 a piece.
Describing them as the blue chips of furniture investment, Mr Thew said: 'The prices of furniture made of those types of wood have increased like crazy.
'This is because they are imperial wood, which was used by the rich and famous. It is also a precious timber, because it takes more than 100 years just to grow six inches of the wood.'
However, not all pieces made of Zitan or Huanghuali wood may fetch the same value because of the different styles and designs of the subject, cautioned Mr Thew.
Investors can also look at buying thousand-year-old terracotta art pieces due to their rarity, said Mr Thew.
High-end watches
Why you should invest: People who put their money in watches are holding value that is better than what they have put into their stocks, said Mr Patrick Tan, executive vice-president of Sincere and head of the Sincere Watch Academy.
One such example is the Patek Phillippe Calatrava, which has doubled in price since it was produced 15 years ago, said Mr Tan.
Prices of watches increase because the cost of producing watches has gone up, explained Mr Tan.
However, it is difficult to determine how much watches appreciate by as consumer tastes are always changing, he added.
What you should consider: Look at the heritage of the brand, the craftsmanship and the engineering of the watch.
More established brands include Patek Phillippe and A. Lange & Sohne.
However, Mr Tan was quick to add that watches are not like durians, and there are no quick tips or 'bao jia' (sure win) guarantees for investors.
The key to investing is still having a good knowledge of watches and doing intensive research.
Investor tips: Buy innovative watches and special-edition watches, such as those released by watchmakers when they celebrate their anniversaries.
However, these are available only to a select few collectors who can 'justify that they are supporters of the brand', Mr Tan said.
One such watch, the Sincere Jubilee A. Lange & Sohne Double Split, released by Sincere during its 50th anniversary celebrations, fetched its owner a 40 to 50 per cent return when he auctioned it off six months later.
Only five of the limited-edition watches were made available to customers.
But Mr Tan's most important tip is for investors to buy what they enjoy.
'It would be a sad situation if people buy the watches purely for investment, but do not enjoy the watches,' he said.
This article was first published in The New Paper on November 2, 2008.

BULL or BEAR Market, you can make money

Bull or bear market, you can make money
By Lorna Tan
For the past months, many stock investors have been caught in a roller-coaster ride, no thanks to the current financial turmoil.
It is common to hear investors lamenting about how much they have sunk into the stock market, only to see the value of their stocks plummet.
If you have a stock portfolio and are bearish on where the market is heading, there are two things you can do: sell your stocks now, which may mean a loss, or just hope for the best.
Rather than do nothing, you may also want to check out the recently relaunched Straits Times Index (STI) Futures, which provide retail investors an opportunity to profit even from a falling market.
For those unfamiliar with the topic, the benchmark STI represents the performance of the top 30 stocks of the Singapore market, based on market capitalisation. They include Singapore Press Holdings, Singapore Exchange (SGX), SingTel and the local banks.
STI Futures are contracts or agreements between buyers and sellers to buy or sell the STI portfolio of 30 stocks at an agreed price (futures price) to be settled at a specific future date.
STI Futures were launched in 2000 but not many retail investors were aware of this tool. With the relaunch last Thursday, there will be firms that provide ready buy and sell prices for STI Futures. This will lead to greater liquidity of the product.
It is a useful tool for investors who wish to take a position on where the local market is heading - that is, whether they believe that the STI will trend up or down - by buying or selling STI Futures contracts.
This means trading based on broad market movements instead of single stock movements. This reduces the need for individual stock selection; your risk is also diversified over 30 stocks instead of being pegged to a single stock.
At the same time, it can help to protect you against, or help you profit from, fluctuations in the stock market.
Here are some things you need to know about STI Futures:
What is the value of one STI Futures contract?
The value of each STI Futures contract is equal to $10 multiplied by the current index trading level.
For instance, if the index is trading at 2,300, holding a futures contract will be equivalent to investing $23,000 in the stock portfolio of the 30 listed companies.
This means that when a STI Futures contract is traded, the seller has, in essence, agreed to sell $23,000 and the buyer has agreed to buy $23,000 worth of stocks, as measured by the STI.
How are STI Futures transacted?
You are not required to cough up the full payment equivalent to the contract value. But the buyer or seller must each put up an initial margin deposit with the broker in order to secure the contract.
This margin, which is decided by SGX, is typically about 5 to 15 per cent of the contract value. The prevailing initial margin is $1,625 for one contract.
The margin essentially means that the STI Futures allow the investor to trade a portfolio of 30 stocks at a mere fraction - about 5 to 15 per cent - of its value.
At the end of each trading day and all following days that your position remains open, the contract value is "marked-to-market".
Your account is credited or debited based on that day's trading session. If your margin deposit falls below a certain maintenance level - currently set at $1,300 - your broker will request additional funds to replenish your trading account. If your position generates a profit, you may withdraw any excess funds from your account.
Margin levels prescribed by SGX are based on the movement of the underlying stock market as represented by the STI. The margin levels, therefore, will fluctuate depending on the historical and prevailing movement of the STI.
Do I need to own any of the stocks included in the STI in order to trade the futures contract?
You do not need to own any stock in order to trade the STI Futures. In stock index futures trading, you do not actually deliver or receive any stocks.
How can I profit from trading the STI Futures?
Like trading stocks, the point is to buy low, sell high.
The STI Futures offer the flexibility of buying and selling in whatever order you want.
That is, you can "buy first, sell later" or you can "sell first, buy later". If you think prices are going up, you may establish a "long" (buy) position, and if you think prices are going down, you may initiate a "short" (sell) position.
In addition, with the STI comprising a portfolio of 30 stocks, you can effectively participate in the broad market movements without the hassle of stock-picking. Each index point movement has a value of $10.
In other words, you gain $10 per index point rise if you have a long position or per index point fall for a short position.
Below are two trading scenarios:
Scenario A
Day 1: You are bullish about the Singapore stock market and decide to buy a September STI Futures contract at 2,400.
Contract value = 2,400 x $10 x 1 contract = $24,000
Initial margin required (at $1,625 per lot) = $1,625
The STI rises that day.
End-of-Day 1 settlement price = 2,425
Daily marked-to-market profit = (2,425 - 2,400) x $10 x 1 = $250
You now have a paper profit of $250.
Margin account balance = $1,625 + $250 = $1,875
As you have not liquidated your contract, you have one lot of open position.
Day 2: Market rallies further to 2,438. You feel the price is good and decide to take profit, selling your September STI Futures contract at 2,438.
Daily marked-to-market profit = (2,438 - 2,425) x $10 = $130
Margin account balance = $1,875 + $130 = $2,005
Total net profit = $130 + $250 = $380
In this scenario, your bullish outlook holds and you ultimately make a net profit of $380 when you liquidate your position.
Scenario B
Day 1: You are bearish about the short-term prospects of the Singapore market and decide to sell a September STI Futures contract at 2,400.
Contract value = 2,400 x $10 x 1 contract = $24,000
Initial margin required (at $1,625 per lot) = $1,625
Contrary to your initial bearish view, the market turns bullish; the STI closes higher.
End-of-Day 1 settlement price = 2,435
Daily marked-to-market loss = (2,435 - 2,400) x $10 x 1 = $350
You now have a paper loss of $350.
Margin account balance = $1,625 - $350 = $1,275
Maintenance margin required (at $1,300 per lot) = $1,300
You have a margin call and must deposit additional funds now because your margin account balance of $1,275 is below the maintenance margin of $1,300.
You need to top up $350 to bring it back to the initial margin level of $1,625.
Day 2: The market shows a decline.
You want to cash in on this move by liquidating your position by buying a September STI Futures contract at 2,388.
Daily marked-to-market profit = (2,435 - 2,388) x $10 = $470
Total net profit = - $350 + $470 = $120
In this example, you ultimately make a net profit of $120 on Day 2 when you liquidate your position.
How long should I hold on to a position?
As stock markets can be volatile, you take advantage of price movements by getting in and out quickly. Depending on your personal preference and perspective, you may wish to adopt a short-term trading approach (taking a position for one day, one hour, or even just a few minutes); or medium-term approach (several days to several weeks); or long-term (months at a time).
What are the risks?
The initial margin deposit is relatively small compared to the contract's value. The transaction may lead to quick and substantial profits, but the reverse is true for losses too when prices do not move in the expected direction. Investors should also be mindful of margin calls if the margin account falls below the maintenance margin.
It is possible that you may lose more than the amount you have in your margin account under circumstances of extreme market movements. Investors are strongly advised by financial experts to use only excess funds that they can afford to invest.

This article was first published in The Straits Times on October 5, 2008.

Looking on the bright side of the financial collapse

Looking on the bright side of the financial collapse
By Michael Lewis

One of life's rules is that there's bad in good and good in bad. The total collapse of the US financial system is no exception. Even in the midst of the current financial despair we can look around and identify many collateral benefits.
A lot of attractive office space seems to be opening up in midtown Manhattan, for instance, and the US government is now getting paid to borrow money. (And with T-bills yielding 0 per cent, they really ought to borrow a lot more of it, and quickly.) And so as Morgan Stanley chief executive officer John Mack blasts short-sellers for his problems, and Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein swans around pretending to be above this little panic, we ought to step back and enjoy the positives.
To wit:
We finally get to see what's inside these big Wall Street firms.
We've just witnessed the largest bankruptcy in US history and we know neither the inciting incident (though there is speculation that sovereign wealth funds decided to stop lending to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc), nor the deep cause. But there's now a pile of assets and liabilities smouldering in New York awaiting inspection.
The assets include sub-prime mortgage-backed bonds and no doubt many other things that aren't worth as much as Lehman hoped they might be worth. But it's the liabilities that are most intriguing, as they include more than US$700 billion in notional derivatives contracts. Some of that is insurance sold by Lehman, against the risk of other companies defaulting.
The entire pile might be benign, but somehow I doubt it. We may well find out that Lehman Brothers, in liquidation, has a negative value of hundreds of billions of dollars. In that case the natural question will be: How much better could things be inside Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, both of which were engaged in the same lines of business?
We are creating the financial leaders of tomorrow.
Remember when everyone believed in Alan Greenspan? When John McCain, running for US president in 2000, said that if Mr Greenspan died he'd have him stuffed and propped up against the wall at the Federal Reserve, where he'd remain chairman?
No sooner did Mr Greenspan shuffle off the stage and sell his memoir than the financial system he helped shape fell apart. He's left not only a mess but a void.
No matter how well-educated we become in our financial affairs, we still need public officials to look up to, unthinkingly. And there's nothing like a government bailout to create new public-sector heroes. US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, 62, is probably too old; in any case, he's tarred by his association with both George Bush and Goldman Sachs. But 47-year-old Tim Geithner at the New York Fed is perfectly positioned to make Americans feel as if their financial system is in good hands for many years to come.
Getting the credit
I have no real idea if Mr Geithner knows what he's doing and he may not either. ('Bail out that one. No! Not that one - the other one!') It doesn't matter. He's in the middle of great events and should, by the end of them, know more about what happened than anyone.
Whatever happens to the US financial system someone is bound to get the credit for something even worse not happening and, as no one really understands what Mr Geithner does, he's the obvious choice.
Ordinary Americans get a lesson in low finance. It's been expensive but, then, so is kindergarten.
Americans' willingness to believe that we can hire some expert to tell us how to outperform markets is a big problem, with big consequences. It underpins Wall Street's brokerage operations, for instance, and leads to a lot more people giving out financial advice than should be giving out financial advice.
Thanks to the current panic many Americans have learned that the experts who advise them what to do with their savings are, at best, fools.
Merrill Lynch & Co, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc and all the rest persuaded their most valuable customers to buy auction-rate bonds, telling them the securities were as good as cash. Those customers will now think twice before they listen to their brokers ever again. Many, I'm sure, are just waiting to get their money back from their brokers before they race for the exits and introduce themselves to Charles Schwab.
Bank of America Corp will soon discover that the relationship between Merrill Lynch and its customers isn't what it used to be, but Bank of America's loss is America's gain.
America has lots of new houses. Not all of them have people in them, sadly, but that's a minor detail. Even better, no one has had to pay for them, and probably never will.
I'm betting that the US government will soon have no choice but to take the final step and guarantee every bad mortgage loan ever made by Wall Street.
I can hear you thinking: Doesn't that mean the taxpayer foots the bill? That's so negative! Sure, one day some taxpayer will foot the bill but if the government does what it does best, and continues to borrow huge sums from foreigners, it doesn't have to be you or me.
Huge numbers of Wall Street executives will have the time to raise their children.
For years now Wall Street has been far too lucrative for a certain kind of energetic and ambitious person to justify anything but the most perfunctory personal life. Now that the market for his services has collapsed, he has time to go home and figure out which of the children roaming around the mansion are actually his.
In time, he will learn to love them and they him, and they will gain the benefit of his wisdom and experience. Perhaps one day they will put it to use as traders and investment bankers on the Wall Street of the future, where they will report to those exalted creatures of high finance: loan officers.
There, slowly, they can earn the money they will need to pay off the mortgages defaulted upon by their forebears. - Bloomberg
The writer is a Bloomberg News columnist and the author of 'The Blind Side'. The opinions expressed are his own.

This article was first published in The Business Times on September 19, 2008.